Daily Murders in the nation Decline 37% Under Claudia Sheinbaum, As per Official Data

The mean figure of daily killings monthly in the country has decreased by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, per fresh official data. Nevertheless, security specialists have warned that homicide numbers might not signal better national safety.

Notable Decline in Daily Figures

There was an mean of nearly 55 murders a day in the month of November versus roughly 87 when Sheinbaum took the presidency in September. This announcement was shared by the head of the country’s national public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular news conference on Tuesday.

“The result in homicides that we’ve had during these past months is extremely significant,” Sheinbaum stated, noting that in November the smallest figure of murders were registered for any single November in the last decade.

Recent Background and Official Plan

Violent drug cartel internal conflicts, combined with the government’s highly military efforts to take on the drug gangs, have caused Mexico’s homicide rate rise sharply in recent years. The figure peaked at a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the country’s official data agency.

That gave Mexico a homicide rate more than 4x greater than the US. From that point, homicides have been on the decline, declining to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Claudia Sheinbaum has linked her national security plan for an seemingly more pronounced reduction in killings this year.

At a media briefing in the summer, the Mexican leader declared: “There is a strategy, we have tracking of the plan, and we have specific tracking town by town in certain cases. The strategy functions. And we have to keep working at it each day.”

The central components of Sheinbaum’s security strategy encompass:

• Bolstering Mexico’s federal guard.
• Improving information gathering and investigation efforts.
• Increased collaboration between various departments.

Expert Caution and Data Concerns

But, security experts cautioned that using homicide data to paint a picture of pacification was misleading. This is particularly true in light of the uptick in different criminal activities such as abductions.

“This would be excellent information if this were a drop, but I think we shouldn't just look at the murder numbers and think: ‘Alright, great,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican cartels. “I would be guardedly positive.”

According to the public policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings in total dropped by over 20% in the first 10 months of this year relative to the identical timeframe the previous year. But, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in some states have increased by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on murders is no longer useful for gauging the context of insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the ability or the inclination to accurately identify and classify remains. Second, organized [criminals] … have the means to mask violence through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that using month-to-month means of daily homicides was also concerning because it could obscure days when there were especially spiking levels of killings.

“Employing the daily mean renders spikes of violent crime less visible,” he concluded.

Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Progress

Where the administration can cite the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on detentions and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 suspects were apprehended between October 2024 and this past November for major offenses, according to government data. More than 20,000 firearms were confiscated and 311 tons of narcotics seized.

“Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical degrading of organised crime. It’s very politically profitable,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Public Frustration

But despite these measures, Mexico is still grappling with severe bloodshed, with multiple states in the throes of cartel-fueled bloodshed. In the previous month there was a prominent assassination of a popular local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders killed in the last 12 months.

A short time after, many thousands of protesters protested in Mexico City and throughout the nation to show their frustration at corruption and cartel violence.

“The administration presents [data] in a manner to create a narrative of safety. From a political standpoint it’s highly successful, socially it’s highly problematic,” the analyst concluded.