Foreign Office Advised Regarding Military Action to Overthrow Zimbabwe's Leader

Newly disclosed papers show that the Foreign Office advised against British military action to remove the former Zimbabwean president, the long-serving leader, in 2004, stating it was not considered a "serious option".

Government Documents Reveal Deliberations on Handling a "Depressingly Healthy" Leader

Policy papers from the then Prime Minister's government indicate officials weighed up options on how best to handle the "depressingly healthy" 80-year-old dictator, who declined to leave office as the country fell into turmoil and financial collapse.

Following the ruling party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK participated in a US-led coalition to overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, Downing Street asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to produce potential options.

Policy of Isolation Deemed Ineffective

Diplomats concluded that the UK's policy of isolating Mugabe and forging an international consensus for change was failing, having not managed to secure support from key African nations, notably the then South African president, the South African leader.

Options outlined in the documents included:

• "Attempt to remove Mugabe by force";
• "Go for tougher UK measures" such as seizing finances and closing the UK embassy; or
• "Re-engage", the option supported by the then outgoing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"We know from Afghanistan, Iraq and Yugoslavia that changing a government and/or its bad policies is exceedingly difficult from the outside."

The diplomatic assessment rejected military action as not a "realistic option," adding that "The only nation for leading such a military operation is the UK. No one else (even the US) would be willing to do so".

Warnings of Heavy Casualties and Legal Hurdles

It warned that military intervention would cause significant losses and have "considerable implications" for British people in Zimbabwe.

"Short of a major humanitarian and political disaster – resulting in widespread bloodshed, significant exodus of refugees, and regional instability – we assess that no nation in Africa would support any efforts to remove Mugabe forcibly."

The document continues: "Nor do we judge that any other European, Commonwealth or western partner (including the US) would sanction or participate in military intervention. And there would be no jurisdictional basis for doing so, without an approving Security Council Resolution, which we would not get."

Long-Term Strategy Advocated

Blair's foreign policy adviser, Laurie Lee, advised Blair that Zimbabwe "could become a significant obstacle" to his plan to use the UK's presidency of the G8 to make 2005 "a pivotal year for Africa". Lee concluded that as military action had been ruled out, "we probably have to accept that we must play the longer game" and re-engage with Mugabe.

Blair appeared to agree, writing: "We must devise a way of exposing the lies and malpractice of Mugabe and Zanu-PF ahead of this election and then afterwards, we could attempt to restart dialogue on the basis of a firm agreement."

The then outgoing ambassador, in his valedictory telegram, had advocated critical re-engagement with Mugabe, though he understood the Prime Minister "might shudder at the thought given all that Mugabe has uttered and perpetrated".

The Zimbabwean leader was ultimately removed in a military takeover in 2017, aged 93. Earlier assertions that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressurise the South African president into joining a armed alliance to depose Mugabe were vehemently rejected by the ex-British leader.