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Only two days before the NYC mayoral election, political analyst Michael Lange made a significant electoral prediction – not just who would win citywide, but precinct by precinct. Lange, an expert in elections born and raised in New York City, has spent more than ten years in progressive politics and has become a kind of well-known figure this year for his deep dives into city data and voter surveys.

He released his extremely precise prediction map – which correctly forecast that Zohran Mamdani was victorious although failed to predict the independent candidate’s strong performance – on his newsletter, the Narrative War. Lange has a flair for witty coinages. He pointed out, for instance, the split between the “commie corridor”, stretching from Park Slope to another area to a third locale, where he predicted (accurately) that the left-wing candidate would win by huge margins, and the “capitalist corridor” on affluent parts of Manhattan. In those areas, certain media outlets and Wall Street Journal outrank the New York Times” in readership and most voters leaned toward the independent, campaigning as a conservative-courting independent.

Voting Day Trends and Unexpected Results

What was your night?

It was necessary since they were adding around 200,000 votes into the tally every few minutes! I was actually somewhat anxious at the beginning: The candidate was ahead the initial ballots by 12 points, but there were large groups of ballots added after that and his lead went from 12% to 8%. I was worried.

Understand, there was a world in which yesterday went kind of poorly for him, in which the opponent was going to end up essentially increasing his support from the earlier contest. But Mamdani added 500,000 supporters to his initial base, and that’s a huge reason why he won. He campaigned and greatly broadened his base from the first round.

Coalition Building

Where did Mamdani get those extra votes from?

He assembled the alliance that the left always wanted to build: it’s multiracial, it’s young, tenants and it’s people squeezed by affordability. He improved considerably with minority communities, everyday New Yorkers, compared to the primary. Additionally he further maximized his base of liberal progressives, youthful radicals, and immigrant groups. He couldn’t have won without making those significant inroads.

He created the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: diverse, youthful, renters and residents squeezed by affordability

There were also a number of Trump/Mamdani voters – is this significant?

It’s definitely a genuine phenomenon, limited to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Muslims. Electors in ethnic enclaves that supported the former president previously backed the progressive this year. However I wouldn’t say he was gaining white working-class voters and Trump loyalists.

Turnout and Impact

One of the big stories of the election was the record turnout. Who benefited?

Both sides. Turnout was significantly higher than anticipated. I thought it could go over 2 million, but it reached 2.3 million – that is a lot of darn voters. There was a decent opposition group, who were motivated, but the Mamdani base was also motivated, and that was enough to secure victory.

You predicted he’d get over half the ballots. Is he likely for that?

Right now it appears he’s favored to get over half. He has just over 50% but remain probably 200,000 votes uncounted at that time. Thus I don’t think certain, but I think probable, and I wish he achieves it because then no one can say the Republican was a spoiler.

GOP Decline

The GOP candidate, the Republican candidate, is the other big story. His vote completely collapsed.

He didn’t win a single precinct in any area. Including Tottenville in Staten Island, similar to an highly conservative neighborhood. That truly surprised me. Cuomo kept very white areas, very wealthy areas and very religiously Jewish areas, and plus gained many conservatives on Staten Island who had a strong turnout. I believe there was a lot of strategic balloting by GOP voters. They were doing it prior to the former president tweeted his support for Cuomo, but it assisted. It might have changed the outcome if the winning alliance failed to expand.

The “Commie Corridor”

Regarding your often-discussed “commie corridor” – did backing for Mamdani overwhelming in those parts of Brooklyn and Queens?

I think existed a little dilution of the commie corridor in certain places like Astoria or Greenpoint that have older Caucasian residents. In Astoria, for example, the property owners and homeowners all went for the independent. Thus there was a little resistance. However no, mostly the commie corridor is a key factor why Zohran won – he scored between high percentages in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Jewish Voters

Prior to the election we reported on if the candidate was gaining ground with Jewish New Yorkers. Is there any suggestion that he succeeded?

There are neighborhoods with many secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – like specific locales – where he performed strongly. But in the wealthy Jewish communities such as the Upper East Side, his Middle East stance was influential there. Likewise in the more middle-class Jewish areas like Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Bronx areas – they favored the independent. Plus, there are Jewish immigrants from Eastern Europe in the borough, who were strongly Cuomo. So it’s unclear if there were major surprises here, but he retained more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and including sections of the another locale with large leads.

Political Impact

Did Mamdani redefine what New York means politically? Will progressive base become a launch pad for leftwing candidates?

Yes, it’s no coincidence that key figures from progressives hail from a few areas in the boroughs. I’m sure that we’ll see more of that – candidates will come from these areas to be elevated nationally.

But I believe that every city in the US could develop similar progressive hubs. Cities are the centers of progressive influence in America – because youth reside there, tenancy is common and they are places where individuals struggle by the disparities we face.