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Ouch. On one hand, Australia's long-running bid to host the UN climate conference next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for more than three years for the privilege to host the world's biggest environmental conference and sustainable business expo, which would have attracted many thousands of people to the city of Adelaide next November.

That's not happening. Instead, the summit known as the UN climate meeting is headed to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Letdown and Mixed Messages

The result will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had believed organizing the climate carnival could help speed up Australia's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring international focus to the survival crisis facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been doubts that the prime minister and other senior figures truly desired the proposal to be approved. His statements sent mixed messages at best. This led to reports in the Australian and international media saying the government was withdrawing.

This differed from the message being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the city of Belem, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. While the minister supported it, other high-level figures of the administration have only sometimes appeared to be interested.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, usually in charge for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and at times completely against.

There is little sign the prime minister has viewed UN climate conferences a important focus. He hasn't attended one since taking office in 2022. We'll never know, but some will wonder if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. But there is another way to consider it.

In the context the climate discussions this week in South America – and from an international perspective – the decision on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the best result possible.

Bowen set out on that day an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the conference leader, organizer and primary coordinator, and Australia – the climate minister – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", managing nearly 200 countries on the matters that the countries actually turn up for – the talks on how to together combat the environmental emergency.

There would also be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an island nation.

Reasons for Doubt

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. The two nations do not have a strong partnership. Specific aspects of the deal had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The whole thing could fall over before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an impending disaster for the multilateral work on global warming.

Turkey is widely seen in the global community as having been determined on creating disruption in the UN climate process. The system is supposed to work by unanimous agreement. Usually, that means if there are several nations in the competition those with weaker backing either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is quietly done to persuade them to exit the race.

Turkey plainly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 nations responsible for selecting next year's host had supported the southern pitch.

However, exceptionally, Turkey declined to withdraw. The term "bastardry" has been thrown around in recent days, and not only by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Ankara's stubbornness can be read as a manifestation of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no dominant nation with the influence to confront the petroleum exporters that provided the Turks with some cover.

President Erdoğan is considered aligned with the Russian leader. Several nations worried about a conference obstructed from the top if his administration managed the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an unprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in the German city, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't broken.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was necessary. International frameworks is flawed and often disconcerting to watch, but global cooperation has empirically made a difference in the fight against global heating. This joint approach is a creative idea that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the Australian government over its hypocritical support for increasing carbon-based exports, environmental advocates who participate in UN conferences see Bowen as a positive influence in the talks. He has been requested to lead discussion groups at multiple summits he has participated in.

This matters. While some have dismissed the importance of a "chief negotiator", experts from research centers and experienced analysts at climate talks assert it is pivotal to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a president directing proceedings who can listen, forge agreement and deliver an significant result. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the conference other than making sure that people have food."

Unanswered Questions

Multiple unresolved issues. For example, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at climate conferences. How, if anything, can the federal administration do to prevent a crackdown on NGO participation by the host government?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this deal appearing as the most promising opportunity available to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific region, Australia and the global community. It's worth a try.