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Initially, the former US president appeared to take a firm approach regarding the Ukrainian conflict. After delivering threats of "significant consequences" during the summer if Vladimir Putin persisted blocking truce negotiations, the former president ultimately enacted considerable penalties on Russia's biggest energy firms, Rosneft and Lukoil. This action seriously impacted Putin's capacity to fund his aggression in the region.

But, through his recently unveiled 28-point peace initiative for the conflict, which was drafted by both nations' diplomats excluding Ukrainian or EU participation, he has apparently returned to his favorable to Russia stance.

Rewarding Invasion

The former president's plan would in practice reward Putin for invading Ukraine while putting the country's political freedom in peril. Although strong proclamations that "Ukraine's autonomy will be affirmed", significant aspects of the proposal in reality compromise that same sovereignty. Seen as a Moscow's wish would certainly be a catastrophe for the nation.

Demonstrating his real-estate past, the former president persists to view the Ukrainian conflict as a basic land disagreement, like giving Putin a part of Ukrainian territory will please the ruler. But, Putin's war is not merely about controlling a charred area of deindustrialized area in the Donbas region. Rather, it is about the nation's democratic governance – and the Russian leader's obvious goal to destroy it so it ceases to serves as an enticing standard for the Russia's population of the responsible government that Putin's increasing dictatorship denies them.

Land Surrenders

While maintaining in place the currently separated oblasts of these areas, Trump's plan would force Ukraine to give up the entire this eastern territory. Beyond rewarding Russia with land that its forces have been unsuccessful to occupy in exceeding a decade of warfare, this giveaway would render Ukrainian defenses severely weakened.

Donetsk is the place of Ukraine's much-vaunted "stronghold system", the well-established defensive positions that are a essential barrier to Russian advances. The proposal would have Ukraine abandon these positions, giving Putin a clear path to Kyiv in case he eventually choose to restart the conflict.

Military Limitations

Then, in a action that would enable future fighting easier for Russia, Trump would mandate Ukraine to diminish the scale of its military from their present large number personnel to a limit of 600,000. Significantly, Trump's plan sets no such restrictions on Russia's military.

In what appears as a concession to Russia's attempts to portray Ukraine's democratically elected administration as radicals, the plan asserts: "Every Nazi ideology and activities must be condemned and banned." Apparently to underscore this aspect, it demands that "Ukraine will hold democratic votes in 100 days" of a ceasefire agreement. At the same time, the proposal imposes no obligation that the Russian leader risk his authoritarian rule by holding votes in Russia.

Security Guarantees

Admittedly, the plan has the Russian Federation pledge not to "enter neighboring countries" and to "incorporate in regulation its stance of peaceful relations towards European nations and Ukraine". However taking into account that Putin has violated comparable accords in the past – for example the 1994 agreement, in which the Russian government promised to honor Ukraine's sovereignty in return for relinquishing its historical nuclear arsenal, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Russia agreed to a ceasefire and a return of occupied areas in eastern Ukraine to the government – how should we trust this commitment this time?

This explains Ukraine has been so adamant on external protection assurances. While the proposal promises a "immediate joint armed reaction" should the Russian Federation renew its aggression, and provides that "Ukraine will receive reliable security guarantees", the specifics vary from vague to concerning. The proposal would not just prevent the nation accession to NATO but also prohibit member states from stationing military personnel on the nation's land, effectively blocking the reassurance force, presumptively headed by European powers, on which Ukraine had been counting to deter Putin from restoring his weakened forces, re-equipping, and attacking again.

Global Concern

Another side agreement apparently would provide the nation with a alliance-like protection assurance, in which any subsequent "significant, planned, and sustained aggression" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "shall be regarded as an attack jeopardizing the stability and safety of the transatlantic community." This indicates a defense action. But unlike a powerful Ukraine's armed forces – the nation's best protection against additional invasion – the effectiveness of the supplementary deal would hinge on the willingness of alliance members, such as Trump, to react with force to Russia's hostilities, a response they have {not